Does an early warning system help travellers with malaria preparedness?

The Kenyan Meteorological Department together with the Ministry of Health has developed an early warning system for epidemic malaria. The model focuses on temperature and rainfall.

For November/ December 2025, it is predicting a much higher risk of an outbreak in Kakamega, rather than Kisii and Nandi in the Western Highlands region of Kenya - See Malaria Epidemic Prediction Early Warning System.

Will this type of system influence decisions on whether short-term travellers should take malaria prophylaxis?

The answer is probably no.

While we can always make a prediction on weather conditions it doesn’t always pan out as expected. Climate change is also making this more difficult.

This dilemma has existed for the cooler/ drier months in southern Africa (Zimbabwe, South Africa) for a long time.

Understanding Malaria risk for travellers to Africa

Traveller’s to Africa are more likely to use malaria prophylaxis than on any other continent in the world. According to WHO, the African region carries a disproportionately higher burden of disease and death than any other region in the world. It accounts for more than 93% of cases and 95% deaths.

A decision to provide prophylaxis, even in Africa, isn’t always straightforward. It must always consider the time of year, altitude, length of stay, type of accommodation and type of travel.

Some travellers, despite knowing the risk to be low, might still prefer to take prophylaxis. In this situation, it’s more about the cost of medication and whether potential side effects are acceptable.

Consistency of advice is probably the most important consideration, particularly when dealing with groups.

Malaria Cases in Australia

Malaria is a notifiable disease in Australia.

Three hundred and forty-one cases have been reported year to date (to 12 October 2025). In past studies in Australia, travel to Africa has been identified in more than 50% cases.

Principles for avoiding Malaria and severe illness

• Be Aware of areas where malaria is a risk. Understand how the disease is transmitted and how the illness may present
• Avoid mosquito Bites. If you don’t get bitten you can’t get malaria. Remember peak biting occurs between dusk and dawn
• Chemoprophylaxis (preventive medication) is important in high-risk areas. Choose the right medication for you and take it as directed
• Do not delay seeking medical advice and Diagnosis if a fever develops after 5 days from entering a risk area and up to 3 months after leaving. It may still be malaria after this time, and you must remember to make any medical attendant aware of recent travel
• Malaria is Easy to diagnose but more than 1 blood slide may be necessary. At least three slides over 48 hrs must be undertaken to exclude the diagnosis

Learn more about Malaria

To better understand malaria - including how it’s transmitted, where it occurs, and how to prevent infection, visit our Malaria disease page. You’ll find clear, practical information on global risk patterns, seasonal variation, preventive medication and steps travellers can take to stay protected.